sidepickDWG NO. SP-2026-19 · REV A
Sheet 12 - Tools · TL-007DWG SP-2026-19

Expectancy Calculator.

A 70% win rate with terrible risk-reward still loses money. Feed in your system's numbers — the arithmetic decides whether the edge is real or just feels real. Runs in your browser, nothing leaves your device.

Your system
Backtest or live sample size.
In multiples of risk. A 2R win = twice what you risked.
Money projection (optional)
0 to skip the money projection.
OutputTL-007/B
Expectancy / trade–
Profit factor–
Breakeven win rate–
Projected over 100 trades–
Verdict

–

Method
expectancy(win% × avg win) − (loss% × avg loss), in R multiples
breakeven win rateavg loss ÷ (avg win + avg loss)

Past expectancy is not future expectancy: backtests overfit, live fills are worse, and psychology spends the edge. Not financial advice.

Prove the expectancy with live ink.
Sidepick Ledger's trade log computes your real win rate and expectancy from actual fills — backtest claims vs reality.
View Ledger · $19